Insights Investments

You just can’t put this economy down. There are expectations and then there’s reality. Earlier this year, expectations were for a “mild recession” in the second half of 2023, and then that got revised to a more optimistic outlook as time went by (and data came through). On the eve of the third quarter GDP …

“It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see.” -Henry David Thoreau (writer) Here are a few things that caught my attention the past week or so. A few I’m guessing a lot of people don’t even know, but they should. Profit Margins Are Increasing One of the more obvious things we’ve …

It’s not been a good couple of years for macro forecasters in general. First, they said inflation would be transitory, but it persisted longer than most people anticipated (including the Fed). The other big call was for a recession in 2023, which obviously hasn’t panned out. Granted, the year is not done yet, but safe …

As bond yields have risen, stock valuations have grown more expensive relative to bonds. We do believe this reduces the equity risk premium, but it doesn’t erase it. Expected earnings growth rates remain largely consistent with history, providing a solid fundamental basis for stock gains if realized. Overall, we still expect stocks to earn a …

JPMorgan marked the start of third quarter earnings and cast a surprisingly positive light on the market. The financial sector had been under a shadow, with concerns lingering that rising rates on deposits would pressure margins and that credit losses would increase. Despite the worries, the issues didn’t materialize, at least for the largest banks. …

A year ago, a Bloomberg Economics model projected a recession within the next 12 months with 100% probability. That’s a right, a recession was all but certain. Well, fast forward 12 months and not only did we not have a recession, but economic growth has accelerated over the past quarter and is showing strong momentum …

“It felt like the world was ending.” -Economist Chris Rupkey on the Crash of 1987. October is known for many things, with incredible market crashes likely being at the top of the list. The Crashes of 1929 and 1987 stand out for many investors and who could forget the selling and volatility of October 2008? …

Earlier this month, we addressed three key sectors to watch during this upcoming earnings season: Financials, Energy and Consumer Discretionary. Each of these three sectors are dealing with challenges (or tailwinds, in the case of Energy) of their own. But under the surface, we find that Communications Services and Technology may also come under scrutiny …

Rising interest rates in response to ever-heightening inflation was a dominant theme driving stock market performance in 2022. Within that environment, value stocks enjoyed a strong relative performance advantage over growth stocks. This is similar to what played out during the 1970s, another period when value saw significant outperformance over growth. With interest rates remaining …

O-O-O-Ozempic, you know the commercial. Weight loss drugs have enjoyed a stunning debut. Novo Nordisk, the Danish drugmaker, is now the largest company in Europe, thanks to the sensational success of Ozempic, also known as Wegovy. While the GLP-1 class of diabetes drugs has been around for years, it was recently proven to have potent …

Headline inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) ran hotter than expected in September, rising 0.4% over the month and 3.7% over the past year. The culprit was rising energy prices. Gas prices at the pump increased 2.1% in September, following on from the almost 11% gain in August. Long story short, inflation …